The new world disorder from a Swiss perspective
by Jean-Pierre Saw
(2 February 2025) This January 2025, we all wake up with a dull feeling – something is wrong. There are more and more latent and open crises that herald major upheavals. As Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis notes in the “Tamedia” newspapers, “the world is not doing well” – a brief foray.
In Europe
On the Donbass front, a Ukrainian collapse is looming, while offensives on Russian territory are intensifying with the help of Western sponsors. At the same time, Germany and France are stuck in a political and economic crisis, Italy is trying by all available means to reduce its debt, and Austria is still attempting to form a government. Further east, Romania has just cancelled elections on the pretext of external interference, while Hungary and Slovakia are showing autonomy tendencies that are annoying Brussels. Meanwhile, Ms von der Leyen is pushing ahead with her agenda, ignoring the lawsuits against her.
In the Middle East
In the Middle East, Israel emerges as a temporary winner from the various episodes that have unfolded over the past 15 months. Nevertheless, the country has a negative migration balance, the economy is sluggish and the mobilisation of the defence forces has only temporarily reunited the country. While Gaza has been transformed into a huge refugee camp in its own devastated neighbourhood, Europe remains silent. Lebanon is surviving without a president, and its neighbour Syria is no reassurance with its new one. Turkey seems to be extricating itself from the affair, while Iran, plagued by internal protests, is largely emerging weakened from the defeats of its allies.
On the African continent
Unable to ensure a coherent presence on the African continent, Europe is turning a deaf ear to the looming demographic bomb. At the same time, decolonisation is being completed with the total removal of the French military presence, while the governments are courted by various other countries: China, India and Turkey for economic reasons, and Russia and Turkey for military cooperation. The Maghreb countries ignore each other and suffer from internal crises.
In Asia
While Japan is mired in problems reminiscent of our own, the rest of Asia is working, keeping quiet and waiting for its chance. Only the burlesque interlude of South Korea disturbs the discretion that characterises the continent. Europe looks on helplessly as China prepares for the total war announced by the USA and nibbles at power in the seas and oceans.
In the United States
The USA, more divided than ever, is facing Mr Trump and his update of the entire national software along the lines of Argentina. Will he use the negligence of the other members of the Atlantic Alliance as an excuse to withdraw from the alliance? Or will he try to establish himself as the new leader of the orchestra? Will he make peace with Russia or escalate the war for influence between the G7 and the BRICS countries? In any case, two strategic axes are emerging: internal reconstruction and the rivalry with China. How much room will there be for the traditional allies, who are mired in their own problems?
In Switzerland
And above all, what is happening to Switzerland in this cacophony? The country is being ambushed: NATO is using the pretext of cooperation to take over our army in search of a real threat, while the EU wants to impose its law and judges on us and simultaneously gain free access to our labour market. The good news is that another former ambassador is joining those who are already calling for vigilance: after Paul Widmer, Georges Martin and Jean-Daniel Ruch, Didier Pfirter has now also sounded the alarm in the daily “Blick”, reminding our foreign minister that it is dangerous to toy with the concept of neutrality. He is another defender of our special position in the concert of nations. It’s going to be a hot year!
(Translation “Swiss Standpoint”)